Like many who don’t live in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro is a name I only know from a casual perspective. Given his enduring popularity in his home state, and considering the possibility that his placement on the vice-presidential side of the Harris ticket might ensure an Electoral College win for Harris’ campaign, he is the obvious choice.

Kamala Harris, despite having barely 3 months to seal the deal, is fortunate in that she has many viable options to choose from in terms of a vice-presidential pick. It is almost an embarrassment of riches! Consider that Donald Trump did in fact have a few vice-presidential options that would have been beneficial to his ticket and campaign:

• Nikki Haley, despite her complete capitulation to the MAGA movement, and despite her about-face in terms of her stated positions on nearly everything, would have provided some kind of boost for being female, not White (it would have almost cancelled out the Indian half of Harris). Her reputation as a governor was one of relative competence, and her stint as a cabinet member certainly could not have hurt his campaign, lending a bit of credibility and competence to the ticket that might have maintained a lead for Trump in places like Georgia. But she was not picked.
  

• Marco Rubio, also another former adversary of Trump, could have downplayed his past comments that were anti-Trump, and his general longetivity in Florida politics and his Hispanic heritage would possibly prevent a state like Arizona (or again, Georgia) from going to the blue column. But he was not picked either.

But instead he picked J.D. Vance, a Xerox facsimile of Trump himself in many ways, even if they came from opposite backgrounds in their formative years. When the GOP convention was underway, many Republicans didn’t seem to yet understand that he was a poor choice, a strategical mistake in a number of ways. He offers no potential electoral boost, since Ohio is not really a swing state. He is another white guy who has very little to show for in terms of accomplishments, and his beliefs are clearly malleable to the tide of opportunity that he envisioned by becoming a Trumper (as opposed to a never-Trumper). He is not a gifted orator.

Even if he can settle on a strategy or message as an attack dog on Trump’s behalf, there will be more than a hint of insincerity to what he says. His reputation as an opportunist and a flip-flopper is becoming baked in, and will be hard to undo. Trump had an opportunity in picking his vice president to change the narrative, but he’s an egomaniac, so his decision to pick Vance was not entirely a surprise. At best, he will have no effect on the ticket (like Quayle), and at worst, he will be seen as an example of poor strategy (like Palin).

The other major strategic mistake that Trump made was by holding the GOP convention first, and by extension, picking the vice president first. In an election cycle where the Democrats have to make up for lost time due to Biden’s late departure from his campaign, they were handed a chessboard moment – there has been just enough time for the Harris campaign to look at the reaction and impact of J.D. Vance and make a decision accordingly.

It just so happens, though, that the ultimate choice among the ’embarassment of riches’ may also turn out to be the most tactical and calculated. That is a rare and amazing moment that Harris desperately needs in order to continue the momentum – her VP pick has an outsize effect given the short timeline of the campaign, and many aspects of this year’s election cycle are unlike any other in recent history.

So it makes no sense to assume that the choice of a vice president largely does not matter or will only have a very modest effect on the campaign – if anything, Biden’s lack of fitness for a second term, and how it played out in public, showed that the vice president matters in moments just like these. The primary and foremost requirement of a vice president is to act in moments of contingency or succession – so picking a competent understudy matters a lot. Trump picked his VP based on how it would affect him, wanting someone who wouldn’t upstage him, wanting someone who would be sufficiently loyal. Loyal to what, is the question…

The Democrats learned their lesson quickly about anointing Biden for a second term – this was a concern many people, myself included, had been making months before the June debate debacle. Making the ultimate sacrifice in order to give his party the best hope for winning, Biden bowed out at just the right time. Remember, there is a rift in the Republican party, between those who are not happy with the direction that Trump has taken the GOP, and between those who are either genuinely MAGA or are MAGA for the purposes of opportunity. Trump has done little to bridge the gap between these two groups – this will have a negative effect on Election Day, and it also means that his vice presidential pick can be either a practical one, or line up with his ideology/psychological neediness.

It can’t be both, because the number of viable options available among the array of Republican senators, governors, or other leaders that are popular, competent and also in lockstep with Trump, are almost zero. This is the result of the purge of anyone capable or competent in the GOP ranks, and is proof positive that the Republicans are amateuristic, not serious, and ideologically biased to the point of being downright bad at their jobs. Many people have known this for a long time, but it’s only coming to the surface in the past few months. Trump vilifies beloved and popular Republicans like Brian Kemp, and his personal biases and disdain for anyone who isn’t sufficiently loyal are causing dissent and a lack of cohesion in the GOP.

Notice how there is almost none of this kind of dissent in the Democratic Party. Few among the ranks in the Democratic party are publicly or privately upset that Kamala Harris has become the presumptive nominee. This is the gift from God that the party needed to make up for lost time. Because fewer will be upset about whomever is picked as her vice president – the shortlist is full of capable leaders who will certainly not hurt her campaign, and has the potential to boost it.

Mark Kelly has a unique resume, by being an astronaut, and Gabby Gifford’s husband, and by most measures he would be an acceptable pick. But he has not been a senator in Arizona for very long, and he won by a small margin when he did become elected. I believe that his effect on keeping Arizona blue will be small, though, because he’s simply not super popular in his homestate. He’s not disliked, and he’s a decent articulator of the Harris message, but picking two senators as both the presidential and vice-presidential candidate is rare and not necessarily wise (Obama/Biden being the only time I can think of where two senators were picked to a positive effect.) If he had been re-elected as senator and had a more widespread favorability in Arizona, he might make sense.

Tim Walz is by many measures the most likeable choice to be vice president. His results speak for himself as governor of Minnesota, and his oratory skills are a perfect combination of folksy/plain-spoken, and tactically very sharp. His success as a governor is palpable, but he is definitely a moderate-left Democrat in a state that is probably a safe Democratic win, and presents no state-specific boost for the Electoral College. I can’t imagine that his addition to the ticket would do anything like make neighboring Iowa go blue, or would seal the deal in terms of any marginal voter who is unsure about the Democrats’ competence and ability to govern. Clearly, bland competence is not enough for many voting groups – if it were, then Biden wouldn’t have been under water for so many months. And Minnesota was never at risk, so his broad popularity does not have any overall effect.

That brings us to Josh Shapiro. Pennsylvania is a must-win state in many strategical pathways to the 270 votes needed to win the election, and he’s very popular there. His approval ratings are among the highest of any statewide executive in the entire country – he’s doing something right, clearly. He has a record of success, has been elected 3 times statewide with wide margins, so it stands to reason that there will be more than a few Pennsylvanians who would vote for a Harris/Shapiro ticket. He is a competent orator, and his demeanor and manner of speech feels Obama-esque. He is quick-witted, if not totally a headline-grabber, and his unassuming personality is actually refreshing. He doesn’t feel like a politician so much as a good business leader in the way he lays it out for people. He is both younger than Harris, but has a full resume considering his relative youth, and he’s a governor, which balances out her being a senator (and VP).

Geographically, the balance of a Pennsylvanian and Californian makes sense, and I already sense that their personal working relationship will have good chemistry. There is no dissent or previous disloyalty that Vance has to account for, and he’s the best strategical pick.

If there are any potential negatives in choosing Shapiro, they stem from a lack of clarity on his positions on Israel, and his Jewishness in general. As long as he can converge on a stance that is one and the same with Harris, he should be fine. The left-wing fringe who might see Shapiro as anti-Palestinian are not going to find solace in Trump as an alternative; some may stay home, but I imagine not many, as there are a dozen reasons they hate Trump, as opposed to a few potential reasons they don’t like Harris/Shapiro.

If Shapiro is chosen for the vice president, it takes the wind out of Trump’s consistent and extreme pro-Israel viewpoints. He can’t really get away with being the most pro-Israel candidate any longer if Shapiro is picked. Because Shapiro is not only a Jew, he’s a practicing Jew. He’s not a Reform Jew or a cultural Jew, he’s living his religion on a daily and weekly basis. This will both mute the Republican advantage (if there ever was one), and will force a reckoning about whether there really is any palpable anti-Semitism in this country. And Jewish people, who already vote at a consistently high rate to begin with, will undoubtedly have another reason to show up at the polls by electing a Jewish vice-president.

There probably is a group of people who are overtly or secretly anti-Semitic, but I can’t imagine that they would be enough of a voting bloc to turn any state one direction of the other. They probably largely exist in red states that won’t elect Harris or Shapiro anyway.

Picking Shapiro will force the nation to confront its racism and biases front and center – Harris’ biracial background, and Shapiro’s religion, will mean that there is no way we can’t face this head on. I love that.

A clear choice between the future and the past is being presented to the American voter. The only way I think Shapiro is NOT picked is if there are skeletons in his closet that we are not yet aware of, that was discovered during the vetting process.

A decision is due on who Harris will pick today – imagine the PR boost, the excitement, and the potential to galvanize this race even further, that picking Josh Shapiro would engender. The next rally, and announcement, is to be held in none other than Philadelphia tomorrow. Picking a hometown hero and introducing him as the vice presidential candidate on his home turf will be MAGICAL. A moment in history that we can perhaps be proud of.

Update: OOPS, I was quite wrong! 😉